By Peter D. Hoff

ISBN-10: 0387922997

ISBN-13: 9780387922997

ISBN-10: 0387924078

ISBN-13: 9780387924076

This booklet offers a compact self-contained creation to the idea and alertness of Bayesian statistical equipment. The publication is offered to readers having a easy familiarity with likelihood, but permits extra complicated readers to quick seize the rules underlying Bayesian thought and techniques. The examples and desktop code let the reader to appreciate and enforce easy Bayesian info analyses utilizing average statistical versions and to increase the traditional versions to really expert facts research occasions. The booklet starts with primary notions reminiscent of likelihood, exchangeability and Bayes' rule, and ends with glossy issues akin to variable choice in regression, generalized linear combined results versions, and semiparametric copula estimation. quite a few examples from the social, organic and actual sciences express tips on how to enforce those methodologies in practice.

Monte Carlo summaries of posterior distributions play an immense position in Bayesian facts research. The open-source R statistical computing surroundings presents enough performance to make Monte Carlo estimation really easy for a great number of statistical types and instance R-code is supplied during the textual content. a lot of the instance code might be run ``as is'' in R, and primarily it all should be run after downloading the correct datasets from the spouse web site for this book.

Peter Hoff is an affiliate Professor of facts and Biostatistics on the collage of Washington. He has built a number of Bayesian tools for multivariate info, together with covariance and copula estimation, cluster research, combination modeling and social community research. he's at the editorial board of the Annals of utilized Statistics.

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Example text

Y129 ). 4 θ Fig. 1. Sampling probability of the data as a function of θ, along with the posterior distribution. Note that a uniform prior distribution (plotted in gray in the second panel) gives a posterior distribution that is proportional to the sampling probability. It turns out that we can calculate the scale or “normalizing constant” 1/p(y1 , . . , y129 ) using the following result from calculus: 1 θa−1 (1 − θ)b−1 dθ = 0 Γ (a)Γ (b) . Γ (a + b) (the value of the gamma function Γ (x) for any number x > 0 can be looked up in a table, or with R using the gamma() function).

Yn ) θa = p(θb |y1 , . . , yn ) θb = yi (1 − θa )n− yi × p(θa )/p(y1 , . . , yn ) yi )n− yi × p(θb )/p(y1 , . . , yn ) θa θb (1 − θb yi 1 − θa 1 − θb n− yi p(θa ) . p(θb ) This shows that the probability density at θa relative to that at θb depends n on y1 , . . , yn only through i=1 yi . From this, you can show that n Pr(θ ∈ A|Y1 = y1 , . . , Yn = yn ) = Pr θ ∈ A| n Yi = i=1 yi . i=1 n We interpret this as meaning that i=1 Yi contains all the information about n θ available from the data, and we say that i=1 Yi is a sufficient statistic for θ and p(y1 , .

Over the course of the 1990s the General Social Survey gathered data on the educational attainment and number of children of 155 women who were 40 years of age at the time of their participation in the survey. 2 The Poisson model 49 United States. In this example we will compare the women with college degrees to those without in terms of their numbers of children. Let Y1,1 . . , Yn1 ,1 denote the numbers of children for the n1 women without college degrees and Y1,2 . . , Yn2 ,2 be the data for women with degrees.

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A First Course in Bayesian Statistical Methods by Peter D. Hoff


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